Obama is Ever so Closer to Clinching the Nomination Outright!

Will the Democrats Come to Their Senses?

As the Democrats deciding what to do with Florida and Michigan, the math as to who will end up with more delegates will not change. I've supported the process and Sen. Clinton's right to fight for the nomination--and for as many delegates as she could get. But, this will have to end this coming week!

Back in August, all the representatives of Clinton to the rules committee agreed to the penalty for any state holding early contest (before Feb. 5th). The sole dissenter was one Obama supporter from Florida. Harold Ickes, chief Clinton campaign strategist was elated back then.

The process, as it was laid out clearly favored Sen. Clinton--she had name recognition and lots of money. A shorter campaign with several bigger media markets upfront favor such a candidate. The idea was to open up the process a little bit, and in order to convince states not to come before Iowa and New Hampshire, the DNC (and the RNC) made it clear that there would be penalties! [even though we have state parties, the national convention is controlled by the national committee]. Clinton believed that this contest would have been wrapped up by mid-Feb, and that she'd be the inevitable winner.

One more thing about the rules. The Clinton campaign has been moving the goal posts and now is trying to change the rules after the game has reached its final minute! Florida and Michigan broke the rules and had been told that if they held their contests before Feb 5th, they would not count. They knew the rules before they decided to break them!

Let's say I'm a Dem voter in one of those two states. I'm told that the contests will not count. I decide to do something else with my time instead of voting in a "meaningless contest." Now, I'm told that the contests would count after all. Whaaaaaaa? How is that fair??!!! I am disenfranchised!

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Update 5/31 (6:30pm)

There's been a compromise. Both Florida & Michigan delegations (pledged & unpledged) will be seated in full strength at the convention but with half their votes. This deal gives Clinton at least 94.5 more delegates, and Obama 68 more. Most importantly, however, it moves the goalposts to 2118--the number needed to clinch. Obama, therefore, may fall short of this new mark after all the contents are done this week. He may have to rely on more superdelegates' support to clinch... Which probably will happen. On the other hand, Clinton will not have any chance of getting the nomination unless there's a massive movement of the superdelegates to her side--this is not likely since the movement has been consistently in Obama's favor.

I expect lots of activity (public and behind the scenes) this coming week, because it's becoming more apparent that Clinton thinks more of herself than the party and the ultimate goal of stopping a Bush third term in November! This is a serious matter and should not be allowed to fester during the summer. I can see how this perception may become a boomerang against Clinton. The Dems will see that they cannot blow this chance of winning.

I read Ickes's objections today (and from other Clinton reps) as keeping their options open to haul this fight all the way to Denver! This protracted fight should not be allowed to take place. The superdelegates and other party officials should immediately declare that the process has produced a nominee--a person who leads in the delegate count and the popular vote.

This compromise is to the satisfaction of the MI & FL Democratic parties even if the Clinton camp objects! It shows that the Clinton campaign has lost control of the party! It'll be very hard to maintain the same stance ("I'm staying in to fight to the end") until the convention.

By the numbers (5/31/08, 8 pm)

Obama needed 41 delegates to clinch before today, but now needs 64 of the remaining total 291 (pledged & supers). Clinton needs 241. It is estimated that Obama will be able to get 40-45 in the next 3 remaining primaries. That would leave him short of 20-25 only! I think this is a number he'll reach before the week is out. So, 2118 will be achieved before the convention. The only remaining question is whether Sen. Clinton will work for or against the Dems winning the White House this year.

Here's an excellent site that keeps track of all the numbers and dates.

editor's note: the picture is from Black Adder's 4th season, which satyrized the lunacy of WWI.

PS>In another unrelated story about nonsense, some conservatives have found an offensive corporate logo and are asking for a boycott. An American (US) Christian group called The Resistance says the chain's logo has a naked woman on it with her legs "spread like a prostitute... The company might as well call themselves Slutbucks". Starbucks says the image - based on a 16th century Norse design of a mermaid with two-tails - is not inappropriate.

What do you think? I think if you looked at the original logo with a magnifying glass you could see two dots around where the mermaid's tits should be.... not to mention that she's totally naked!.... Damn those ancient Greeks and their nudity, they started it!