Nov 5, 2008

A Historic Election: The United States Re-invents Itself!

At around 9 pm, when it seemed that Ohio would go blue, we knew that this election had been won by Obama. So, I was off by a couple hours in my prediction. However, I had also predicted:
  • 57 Democratic Senate seats (not counting the 2 independents); As of 11/5/08, the senate races in Oregon and Minnesota are yet to be decided. So, I'll probably be off by 1.
  • 41 Republican Senate seats. (See above)
  • 251 Democratic House seats. The Dems have 250 as of now and 4 are tied.
  • 184 Republican House seats. Spot on!
  • 364 Obama Electoral Votes!!!!!!! Spot on!
  • 174 McCain Electoral Votes. Ditto!

There have been several trends and indicators that let me to believe Obama could ride a wave of change, a political realignment. When I wrote about this back in June, it was a hard sell. Again, right after the GOP convention--when MacPalin were "ahead" in the polls--I thought this bounce (like most convention bounces) would dissipate. My previous posts here explain in detail my thinking. Finally, after almost 2 years since the candidates prepared themselves to run for the nomination, the contest comes to an end. A happy end of us progressives.

One more observation. I argued that the longer contest (that lasted until last June) was good for Obama. It tested him, it introduced him to the American people, and the latter became more comfortable with the him. He looked poised, cool & collected, knowledgeable and presidential. I also thought that the animosities between Sen. Clinton and BO back in the first half of 2008 would be "ancient history" by September. I'm glad that close to 90% of Dems came home to vote for BO. Without having seen the numbers, I'm willing to bet that not only the majority of Dem women but women at large voted for BO.

Here's are some more pictures from Times Square.

All these pictures are from Midtown Manhattan, where people gathered to celebrate BO's victory. Traffic came to a standstill, and for many blocks people filled the streets.
I took these pictures shortly after the networks called it for Obama.

We almost had a riot when all the big screens (as seen here) in Times Square went blank at the moment when Obama came out to speak in Chicago. Fortunately, it only lasted a minute or two.

This is the Fox (Faux) News building on 6th Av. It's about 1 am on Wednesday... I thought this was really funny. Notice that the banner says "projects"... Everyone else knew it, but Faux was still projecting it! Ha! I think all the cons left the building much earlier after they realized their ticket and party would take a good beating!
Sure, it's not the ideology, the view on the role of government, that's responsible for this defeat. Like in other regressive systems, the ideology or the system is never at fault; it's always the "few bad people" that fail. That's what they'll tell us now.
Well, at least we now know that the conservatives and their Republican party is a minority, regional party. If it chooses the likes of Sarah Palin as the flag bearer, it'll further shrink. Carl Rove's (and several others) had predicted a new Republican majority in 2000, a political realignment for the next several generations, have been proven wrong.
In the next few days, when the numbers come in, it'll be interesting to crunch them and see how the country voted. Meanwhile enjoy this! Oh, I think we should move the inauguration of the new president on December 1st. We moved in once from March to January, now we should do it again.


?! said...

I know you won the "office pool" at work, so congrats.

Andros said...

How do you know? WHo are U?

Anyway, I admit I was enthousiastic about this election, but I tried hard to see the trends and read the polls, and see the data.

No one can predict the future. My friends the economists make predictions too, but they can't really predict the market on a consistent basis.

Same with politics, where people with minds & emotions play many roles. But, if you read my posts, there have been changes in our country.

WHether those changes would have produced the result we had on 11/4, no one could have said with absolute certainty.

But, even though there was a "perfect storm" or an "alignment of the stars", BO was able to capture this wave.

Anonymous said...

Do you think if the economy wasn't as bad Obama would have won? How can you say this?

Andros said...

All I'm saying (actually I said lots more and in detail) but these are some of the trends:

1. Young people don't have the same gender & race biases. Why is this important? (think of the GOP's "southern strategy" and its deference to a certain conservative base)

2. Views on the role of government.

3. Red states turning purple.

4. Blue states solidifying.

5. The middle class losing ground.

6. The emergence of the Hispanic community as the new majority minority. By 2-1 they vote Dem.

These are detectable trends. There are numbers, statistics, polls, etc. The right person/party had the opportunity to capture this wave.

That's why I said BO had a great chance of doing so, and that if he did this election would not be close! Seems I got ..lucky ;)

Anonymous said...

You're right. It's the ideology that's a problem. Both sides have on occasion argued this, but people are indeed motivated by their ideology.

Anonymous said...











aqua said...

"Καλή Επιτυχία " λοιπόν στον νέο σας πρόεδρο!!
Την έχει ανάγκη η χώρα σας αλλά και ο όλος (δυστυχώς!) ο κόσμος.
Οι οικονομικές δυσκολίες και η απειλούμενη απώλεια της υπερδύναμης φαίνεται πως συσπείρωσαν τον λαό και οι αμερικανοί άρχισαν να νοιάζονται και λιγο πέρα από τον εαυτό τους.
Σας συγχαίρω που βρήκατε την δύναμη να εκλέξετε έναν έγχρωμο
για πρόεδρο.Το θεωρώ επαναστατικό!
Μακάρι να φέρει πραγματικά την αλλαγή που υποσχέθηκε.
Ετυχε να παρακολουθήσω "live" την ομιλία του αμέσως μετα την εκλογή
και με συγκίνησαν περισσότερο οι
Είδα τα δάκρυα στα μάτια λευκών και έγχρωμων και ένοιωσα πως επιτέλους αυτοί οι άνθρωποι απόκτησαν ένα ΟΡΑΜΑ!
Είναι αυτό που όλη η ανθρωπότητα χρειάζεται περισσότερο απ'όλα στις μέρες μας. Κι αυτός ο έγχρωμος,νεαρός και άπειρος (?) πολιτικός κατάφερε να σας το μεταδώσει .
Μου θύμισε τον Ανδρέα Παπανδρέου ,που κι αυτός με το σύνθημα της αλλαγής κατάφερε να ξεσηκώσει τον λαό και να τον κάνει να πιστέψει πως μπορεί να τα καταφέρει.
Εύχομαι λοιπόν να πραγματοποιήσει την αλλαγή και όλα αυτά που υποσχέθηκε για την παγκόσμια ειρήνη και να επαληθευθούν οι προσδοκίες όλων μας ,μιας και η πολιτική του θα επηρεάσει όχι μόνο τους αμερικανούς αλλά και πολλούς λαούς ακόμα.