May 31, 2008

Obama is Ever so Closer to Clinching the Nomination Outright!

Will the Democrats Come to Their Senses?

As the Democrats deciding what to do with Florida and Michigan, the math as to who will end up with more delegates will not change. I've supported the process and Sen. Clinton's right to fight for the nomination--and for as many delegates as she could get. But, this will have to end this coming week!

Back in August, all the representatives of Clinton to the rules committee agreed to the penalty for any state holding early contest (before Feb. 5th). The sole dissenter was one Obama supporter from Florida. Harold Ickes, chief Clinton campaign strategist was elated back then.

The process, as it was laid out clearly favored Sen. Clinton--she had name recognition and lots of money. A shorter campaign with several bigger media markets upfront favor such a candidate. The idea was to open up the process a little bit, and in order to convince states not to come before Iowa and New Hampshire, the DNC (and the RNC) made it clear that there would be penalties! [even though we have state parties, the national convention is controlled by the national committee]. Clinton believed that this contest would have been wra
pped up by mid-Feb, and that she'd be the inevitable winner.

One more thing about the rules. The Clinton campaign has been moving the goal posts and now is trying to change the rules after the game has reached its final minute! Florida and Michigan broke the rules and had been told that if they held their contests before Feb 5th, they would not count. They knew the rules before they decided to break them!

Let's say I'm a Dem voter in one of those two states. I'm told that the contests will not count. I decide to do something else with my time instead of voting in a "meaningless contest." Now, I'm told that the contests would count after all. Whaaaaaaa? How is that fair??!!! I am disenfranchised!


Update 5/31 (6:30pm)
There's been a compromise. Both Florida & Michigan delegations (pledged & unpledged) will be seated in full strength at the convention but with half their votes. This deal gives Clinton at least 94.5 more delegates, and Obama 68 more. Most importantly, however, it moves the goalposts to 2118--the number needed to clinch. Obama, therefore, may fall short of this new mark after all the contents are done this week. He may have to rely on more superdelegates' support to clinch... Which probably will happen. On the other hand, Clinton will not have any chance of getting the nomination unless there's a massive movement of the superdelegates to her side--this is not likely since the movement has been consistently in Obama's favor.

I expect lots of activity (public and behind the scenes) this coming week, because it's becoming more apparent that Clinton thinks more of herself than the party and the ultimate goal of stopping a Bush third term in November! This is a serious matter and should not be allowed to fester during the summer. I can see how this
perception may become a boomerang against Clinton. The Dems will see that they cannot blow this chance of winning.

I read Ickes's objections today (and from other Clinton reps) as keeping their options open to haul this fight all the way to Denver! This protracted fight should not be allowed to take place. The superdelegates and other party officials should immediately declare that the process has produced a nominee--a person who leads in the delegate count and the popular vote.

This compromise is to the satisfaction of the MI & FL Democratic parties even if the Clinton camp objects! It shows that the Clinton campaign has lost control of the party! It'll be very hard to maintain the same stance ("I'm staying in to fight to the end") until the convention.

By the numbers (5/31/08, 8 pm)

Obama needed 41 delegates to clinch before today, but now needs 64 of the remaining total 291 (pledged & supers). Clinton needs 241. It is estimated that Obama will be able to get 40-45 in the next 3 remaining primaries. That would leave him short of 20-25 only! I think this is a number he'll reach before the week is out. So, 2118 will be achieved before the convention. The only remaining question is whether Sen. Clinton will work for or against the Dems winning the White House this year.

Here's an excellent site that keeps track of all the numbers and dates.

editor's note: the picture is from Black Adder's 4th season, which satyrized the lunacy of WWI.

PS>In another unrelated story about nonsense, some conservatives have found an offensive corporate logo and are asking for a boycott. An American (US) Christian group called The Resistance says the chain's logo has a naked woman on it with her legs "spread like a prostitute... The company might as well call themselves Slutbucks". Starbucks says the image - based on a 16th century Norse design of a mermaid with two-tails - is not inappropriate.

What do you think? I think if you looked at the original logo with a magnifying glass you could see two dots around where the mermaid's tits should be.... not to mention that she's totally naked!.... Damn those ancient Greeks and their nudity, they started it!


BR said...

I was a Hillary supporter but never lost sight of what we're trying to do this year: to win the White House! So, I think it's time for her to end the contest on Tuesday, and get behind the party's nominee-to-be asap.

Chelsea said...

Ickes is such a duplicitous person. He agreed (and liked) the rules back in the summer of 2007 and even up to before the contest began.

Now, he is instructed by Clinton to object and keep Clinton's options open to fight for the nomination until and including the convention.

Not good. Not smart.

I can't believe that this strategy is not coming from Hillary herself. What a bad form, what a selfish person she's turning out to be!

Jess said...

The Clintons seem to like the option of an Obama defeat in November, hoping that Hillary will come back 4 years from now. Ain't going to happen. I don't think any reasonable Dem will support a person who undermines the party's chances this year.

Andros said...

The numbers are what they are. Sen. Clinton lost the control of the Dem party. She was reduced--via her chief campaign strategist/adviser--to object to the compromise accepted by the 2 Dem parties involved in this issue.

Seeing that Obama will need 20-25 delegates after Tuesday to clinch the nomination, I think super delegates will come to support the eventual nominee.

If Clinton continues to fight she'll lose much of her own support. I can't see most of her own delegates sticking with her if they think she's diving the party!

Anonymous said...

The damage may be done already. I hope not, but I'm afraid so.

Andros said...

I think if this thing is settled this week, then it'll be ancient history what happened in the Spring by Labor Day. Of course, I'm assuming that Hillary will not become an issue herself. Who knows with the Clintons...

obamaniac said...

Today, it was a very important development in this process. I am an BO supporters, so I didn't want any compromise and giving Hillary delegates from Michigan when no one else's name (except hers) was on the ballot! In Florida, the Dems agreed not to campaign. She had the advantage of name recognition back in early January!

Anyway, I see your point, that even though she narrowed the gap, she can't catch BO.

Andros said...

My first reaction was, heck it's not fair when you tell me a contest will not count, I don't vote, and then you tell me, sorry, it counts!

However, looking at the greater picture, there had to be a compromise with FL & MI--two very important states. (I also think they learned not to break the rules, but that's besides the point.)

Now, with those two resolved, it actually takes this issue out of play, and the critical numbers didn't change by all that much. Actually, it made it clear that Hillary cannot reach a majority needed to clinch.

The only thing left for her is to argue she's more electable than Obama.... this won't be a strong argument imo.

BALDRICK said...

Are you a fan of Black Adder?

Parisian said...

Hey, Slutbucks could earn their reputation by doing other corporate things but their logo??!!! I would have laughed this off completely, but I understand that in your country the lunatic fringe has power!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this. I now have an image of bare breasts on a naked mermaid with 2 tails and possibly her "legs" (?) spread open!


Got to go now...

drew said...

There are no tits visible! Are they?

On an unrelated story, did you hear that the Clinton campaign just released a statement saying that they may take the fight to the Convention Rules in Denver?!!!!

Wow. that's big. Do they really want to keep the issue open during the summer?!!!